MABUX: Bunker market this morning, Nov.29 - The Libyan Report

MABUX: Bunker market this morning, Nov.29

MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) declined on Nov.28:

380 HSFO – USD/MT – 339.05(-3.56)

180 HSFO – USD/MT – 383.99(-2.74)

MGO – USD/MT – 666.69(-1.18)

Meantime, world oil indexes changed irregularly on Nov.28 after U.S. President Donald Trump signed into law a bill backing protesters in Hong Kong, fueling tensions with China

Brent for January settlement decreased by $0.19 to $63.87 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for January delivery rose by $0.14 to $58.25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of $5.62 to WTI. Gasoil for December delivery lost $1.25.

Today morning oil indexes steady with the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday underway, while the market awaits a meeting of OPEC and its allies next week.

China warned the United States that it would take “firm countermeasures” in response to U.S. legislation backing anti-government protesters in Hong Kong. There are concerns that the move might delay further a preliminary agreement between the United States and China to put an end to their trade war that has slowed global economic growth, and consequently consumption of oil.

On Nov.27, Energy Information Administration data showed U.S. crude inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels last week as production rose to a record 12.9 million barrels per day (bpd) and refinery runs slowed.

The market is also focused on the meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, which have been withholding production to support prices. It is expected, that OPEC+ to roll over its current production cut deal, which is set to expire at the end of March, by three to six months. The deeper cuts by the entire membership are unlikely. OPEC+ due to discuss their global output deal on Dec. 5-6 in Vienna.

Russian oil companies proposed not to change their output quotas as part of the global deal until the end of March, putting pressure on OPEC+ to avoid any major policy change. They also offered to exclude production of gas condensate, the light oil, from the output quotas as Russia has been struggling to meet its supply-reduction targets in recent months. Russian energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Nov.28 that Russia is preparing calculations to exclude condensate from its OPEC+ quota, but has so far yet to take a decision. Quotas for OPEC members only cover crude production, while non-OPEC participants in the deal were allowed to include their condensate production when determining their baseline for cuts. OPEC itself does not have a precise differentiation between crude and condensate. The issue has been brought up at various meetings, but there are no specific criteria that define condensate and it is open to interpretation. Condensate output was previously an issue of friction between Qatar and its former partners within OPEC before the gas-rich Gulf sheikhdom decided to leave the group. Nigeria has also disputed classification of some of its output as crude rather than condensate.

Easing supply concerns, Oil production at Libya’s El Feel field in the southwest of the country restarted on Nov.28 after clashes and air strikes between rival powers had shut down the key facility. The 90,000 b/d capacity oil field in the Murzuq Basin is the latest flashpoint as two rival powers — the forces loyal to the UN-backed Government of National Accord and the Libyan National Army — have engaged in a civil war since April. The field was producing around 75,000 b/d earlier this year. NOC confirmed production had resumed after it was shuttered after the LNA carried out air strikes at the site and regained control of the field.

We expect bunker prices may demonstrate slight irregular changes today in a range of plus/minus 1-4 USD.

Source: MABUX source